Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.089675 0.102230 0.115860 0.131750 0.149758 0.169531 0.192883
2026-01-11 0.070681 0.087041 0.106153 0.130106 0.159305 0.193730 0.237387
2026-01-18 0.057566 0.076118 0.099302 0.130355 0.170816 0.221709 0.290566
2026-01-25 0.044725 0.063311 0.088083 0.123433 0.172499 0.238122 0.332501
2026-02-01 0.034587 0.052276 0.077360 0.115391 0.171463 0.250963 0.372125
2026-02-08 0.027715 0.044603 0.070007 0.110816 0.174534 0.270006 0.423704
2026-02-15 0.022290 0.038103 0.063279 0.106020 0.176510 0.287832 0.476619
2026-02-22 0.019171 0.034700 0.060785 0.107442 0.188455 0.322865 0.562189
2026-03-01 0.015722 0.030086 0.055503 0.103327 0.190605 0.342464 0.625840
2026-03-08 0.013112 0.026467 0.051308 0.100364 0.194242 0.365144 0.698576
2026-03-15 0.011017 0.023411 0.047596 0.097624 0.197809 0.388240 0.775870
2026-03-22 0.009821 0.021908 0.046583 0.099900 0.211316 0.431829 0.898844
2026-03-29 0.008430 0.019769 0.044019 0.098824 0.218465 0.465255 1.009532
2026-04-05 0.007397 0.018208 0.042392 0.099462 0.229397 0.508277 1.147680
2026-04-12 0.006590 0.017000 0.041320 0.101158 0.243019 0.559337 1.312098
2026-04-19 0.005526 0.014945 0.037927 0.096888 0.242436 0.579553 1.412118
2026-04-26 0.004574 0.012958 0.034310 0.091382 0.237957 0.590310 1.492575
2026-05-03 0.003903 0.011560 0.031882 0.088380 0.239088 0.614474 1.609495
2026-05-10 0.003321 0.010277 0.029495 0.085019 0.238707 0.634973 1.721187
2026-05-17 0.003013 0.009718 0.028950 0.086553 0.251593 0.691059 1.933919
2026-05-24 0.002588 0.008701 0.026922 0.083516 0.251418 0.713263 2.061163
2026-05-31 0.002251 0.007882 0.025298 0.081334 0.253280 0.741308 2.209483
2026-06-07 0.001965 0.007158 0.023813 0.079275 0.255134 0.769706 2.363983